The Indicators:

Are you satisfied with way things ‘are going in America’? September: 14% yes, October: 19% (Gallup)This is mainly down to Republicans increasing, Independents have remained at 14%. Obama won re-election at 33%, Reagan 48%. George WH Bush lost at 22%.

Economic confidence is slightly better: -32 April to -4 October. BUT it was +41 before the pandemic (highest in two decades). Amongst independents they are -9 in confidence. 53% believe the economy is getting worse.

Trump has better favourability ratings than in 2016. 36% to 47%. BUT Biden has better than Clinton: 54% compared to 47%. Trump is -4 vs Biden today, and was -5 to Clinton in 2016. Trump is the only incumbent to trail his opponent in favourability rating except Bush who lost in 1992.

The Battleground States: (last three polls and Covid case increases over last seven days)

Arizona: T+1, B+1, B+3 (+14%)
Florida: B+2, B+2, B+2 (+17%)
Georgia: Tie, T+4, B+1 (+16%)
Michigan: B +12, B+7, B+10 (+18%)
Minnesota: B+6, B+5, B+6 (0%)
North Carolina: B+4, T+3, T+1 (-9%)
Pennsylvania: T+2, B+5, B+5 (+21%)
Wisconsin: B+15, B+9, B+5, Tie
Ohio: T+3, B+1, B+1 (+18%)
Iowa: T+2, B+3, Tie (+16%)

The Electoral College: Biden 223, Trump 212. 103 Toss up (Minnesota, Wisconsin Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida) Need 270 TO WIN

Trump’s Path to Victory:
He must win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina. And hold onto states Biden would take in landslide e.g. Texas, Georgia, Arizona.

Biden’s Path to Victory:
He has many more options. If he takes the midwestern states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, then he needs to win either just Florida, or the usually Republican states of Arizona and Georgia, or Pennsylvania and then either Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Florida.  

What to watch out for?
There have already been enough Early Votes to now outnumber half the total number of votes in the 2016 US Election. In Florida Texas 8.5 million have already voted, in 2016 total turnout was 8.9 million.

Some Swing States do not allow the processing of these early votes/mail-in ballots until Election day itself. This means they likely won’t be counted in the initial results from Michigan and Pennsylvania. With more Republicans expected to vote in person, an early Trump lead on the night in these states may be unrepresentative.