This analysis was originally published on my twitter account https://twitter.com/Erik_Green8
Biden always that he said wanted a Vice President who was ‘sympatico’ with him. On a very personal level the below tweet reflects just that. Although @KamalaHarris now seems the obvious choice, it is still significant that she’s the first black women in the role, especially as this makes her a strong contender for the 2024 race @Shoutout_UK
What we don’t know:
– How this choice will affect the electoral map? Kamala Harris however, being senator of California makes any possible home advantage mean nothing to the fortunes of that state when California is such a Democratic stronghold.
– Will her choice mobilize the black vote and BLM groups behind Biden’s campaign?
What we do know:
– Biden’s campaign continues to play it safe. No risk – for example choosing Warren for her big ideas.
– The left of the Democratic party misses out on power again: Schumer, Pelosi, Biden and Harris have all been distant from Sanders, and the left of the party.
Crucially KH offers few obvious vulnerabilities for Trump to attack. Whilst Dems will hope she provides the opportunity to mobilise black voters. But these are voters Biden already attracts.
And this does little for those who wanted this moment to inject great energy into his campaign.
The Trump Response:
The Attack line of ‘Gleefully embraced lefts radical manifesto’ feels like it was written in hope Biden chose someone closer to the Sanders/Warren wing.
Also, ‘calling for trillions in new taxes’ reflects long running attempt to paint Biden in favour of rises. Not yet successful.
Most effective/true line of the ad- KH now a favourite for 2024 President. Yet this will only persuade conservative/republican leaning voters.
So far Republican criticism merely reflects just how difficult it will be to formulate effective/clear attack on KH.
Steady but Boring Biden he remains. This will be played again but remember Biden/Obama clashed in 2008 primaries.
Also it is possible that had Biden not chosen KH, he would have been open to these attacks over busing again. Also in not selecting her and thus appearing to refuse to work with politicians following their criticism, would have undermined his ‘ability to work across the aisle’ card, that he trumpets against Trump’s polarising character.
And despite all of that, electorally KH or anyone other possible choice may not have that much of an effect at all. As per analysis done here by the New Republic: https://newrepublic.com/article/158642/stop-fretting-bidens-vp-choice
What’s different this time though is that many agree Biden wont govern for a second term and will also need a strong/prominent VP in helping him govern.
Finally, it is worth stepping back and asking what this means for America. The Democrats last all white / all male ticket was back in 2004, whilst Kamala Harris is the first African American to be selected as a VP candidate. Despite all the furore over racial tensions heard, particularly over the last few months, America is changing and tonight the Democratic Party at least, is playing a role in reflecting these changes and helping to further their impact.